Showing posts with label Opinion Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Opinion Polls. Show all posts

2 May 2017

May Polls aren't what they used to be | 2017 General Election

What is Alternative Media
Theresa May's popularity is falling week-on-week according to an opinion poll by YouGov.
 
In the recent UK poll YouGov looked at how people say they would vote in the General Election and compared the results with those collected in the previous week. YouGov's analysis also suggest that the Conservative Party remain way ahead in the opinion polls, but what’s significant is how much the gap between Labour and the Conservatives has shrunk from 23 percentage points to just 13 Sunday to Sunday. 

So what can Theresa do? The usual strategy in these circumstances is to simply wait and trust that The Daily Mail, and the 100 and their ill, to frighten people a little more about Crime and National Security and let the opinion poll gap between Labour and Conservatives should fall naturally back into line.

In the run-up to June 8th General Election we should all keep an eye on the headlines for stuff like:

Theresa May is toughest on crime.

Despite the Conservative Government having cut the money the Police need to fight crime by 20%.

The bulk of the mainstream press will also try to terrify us by pretending that it is only the Conservatives Party that is strong enough of on defense to keep us safe.  

Remember though, that it was them that scrapped our only proper Aircraft Carrier before a new one was built and, at the same time, plans to buy an off-the-shelf nuclear weapon from a foreign country rather that building the UK's own independent nuclear deterrent.

When there's a clear alternative to full-blown capitalism the media-knows-best attitude kicks in and it usually works. It didn't happen so much under Tony Blair's leadership because then the Labour Party was Tory Light and the Murdoch press, as long as it didn't affect his empire too much, appeared to quite like Tony's sanitised version of capitalism. Under Jeremy Corbyn, however, the Labour Party is a very different animal, and represents a genuine and more up-front socialist alternative to the kind of hard-nosed capitalism we have at the moment and, as a consequence, the Labour Party has few powerful friends controlling the media. 

It's not the Labour and Lib-Dem crime and defense policies that terrify me, it's the failure of the press to provide a balanced view of what is really going on in our society and the world for that matter.  There are alternative views out there, but they haven't the reach of a mainstream media who are predominantly owned by self-serving billionaires with a vested interest in maintaining a Conservative Government and it’s dog-eat-dog version of capitalism. Put simply, the media have to prevent  Labour, Lib-Democrats, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party from winning power and, above all else, keep a more just and equal society just out of reach of the people.

14 April 2016

European Union Referendum. In or Out?

In or Out EU Referendum 23rd June 2016 
Despite living in Cornwall, where there are more benefits to membership of the European Union (EU) than there are for some, I am still making up my mind whether to vote to remain part of the EU on June 23rd. 
Here's a few key issues from the EU debate which I've been considering before deciding which way to vote in what is probably the most important political question of our lifetime.
A peaceful and social Europe?
The EU certainly isn't all bad. We haven't had a war with Germany and Italy for a while and many of the social policies coming out of Europe have tempered an otherwise unthinking and rapacious free market. I have in mind improved employment rights, things like paternal leave and safety at work, but, on the other hand, surely these changes to workers rights could have been made here in the UK, if our elected MPs cared enough that is...
Is it right that EU Commissioners, that you probably have never seen, or even heard of, make many of the laws used to govern the UK?
The democratic argument for leaving the EU is that it's law making procedures and institutions are not democratic. Decisions are made in secret by EU Commissioners that are appointed and not elected.  Ultimately, the only way to stop these directives becoming enshrined in UK law is for a majority of the Council of Ministers to vote against them, but since the UK is only one voice in twenty eight our ability to influence decision making in Europe is minimal. On top of this mathematical reality, as other EU member states become increasingly aware that the UK is, at the very best, ideologically semi-detached from Europe, the hard core and more powerful members of the EU, i.e. Germany and France, are likely to dig their heals in and make it even more difficult for the UK's Ministers to have a meaningful say in Europe.
Here's the late Tony Benn speaking in 1975 on the undemocratic nature of the European Economic Community which later became known as the European Union:
What economic power has the UK got outside the EU?
If we decide to properly leave the EU, that is without a free trade agreement, the EU will be more expensive for UK to do business with and this will reduce EU trade. It is also by no means certain that the international trade lost from the EU will automatically be replaced by trade with the rest of the world, or on such favourable terms. 
The reality of the situation is that the UK is no longer the superpower it was before the second world war and today ranks as the sixth largest economy in the world. Outside the EU free trade area it will be be more difficult for UK businesses to negotiate as good trading agreements, which will inevitably drag down economic growth. Add to this to this the rise of State Capitalism in Asia and it's not hard to imagine a lose-lose scenario emerging in the years ahead. In short, the decision to leave the EU has to consider the impact of Britain's reduced international stature.
If we end our marriage with the EU will it be a messy divorce?
In view of the power-shift away from the West towards the East, the long term economic benefit to the UK remaining of part of the EU is, I believe, marginal. Business need not fret too much. Businessmen the world over are sufficiently greedy to do deals irrespective of political systems. Further, the UK consistently runs a trade imbalance with the EU meaning that we buy more from them than they buy from us. If the UK pulls out of Europe, it is unlikely that France and Germany will refuse to sell us their Renaults and BMWs? In practice, the EU will realise that their economies are suffering enough without their politicians not playing ball. It's arguable, therefore, that coming out of the EU wouldn't alter the balance of trade with Europe too much, not once it all settles down.
Should we have faith in UK democracy and cut ourselves loose of the European Union?
Overall, because of the undemocratic nature of the EU and the feeling I have of being disconnected from the EU political process, I am considering  voting to come out of the European Union in the June 23rd and look forward with interest to the Remainer's headed by David Cameron, George Osborne and Theresa May to make the democratic and economic case for staying in...
In - Out Referendum
The case for Europe: The UK government's opinion on EU membership
More arguments for and against UK membership of the EU