Why the Conservative Party needs Rory Stewart

Since David Cameron bailed after the EU referendum the Conservative Party has been clinging onto Theresa May for fear of something worse. That something worse, however, is not so much the larger than life character Boris Johnson, but the knowledge of what happens to the Conservative Party once Boris is anointed Britain's Prime Minister.    

 
   

From a Conservative perspective, that something worse, is a self-inflicted Labour Government, and possibly, no Brexit at all.  

  If Boris Johnson is telling the truth, that he will leave the EU “Come what may”, then a No Deal Brexit is a practical reality.  What could follow is the pro-Europeans in the Conservative Party, backed by the Confederation of Business and Industry and the opposition parties, will threaten a general election to try stop an all-out Brexit. 
    The other option is to pick out another Remainer to replace Theresa May, but choosing someone like Jeremy Hunt, is also a risk for the Conservative Party, because deep down, the leave voters upon which they rely, may leave the Conservatives for a more permanent home in Nigel Farage's Brexit Party.  

Far from being the failure her colleagues have portrayed her to be, Theresa May, in terms of delaying the UK's exit from the EU, for Remainers a least, was a tremendous success, however, the majority in the country expect the Conservatives to deliver Brexit, so their leader has to make that happen and pull us out. 

    So what is the Conservative Party to do?  If they pick Boris Johnson and he sticks to his No Deal guns, then there’ll be an election by Christmas.  On the other hand, if they pick Theresa May’s right-hand man in the Foriegn Office, Jeremy Hunt, the party risks prolonging the Brexit impasse and, at the same time, exacerbate the threat posed to them by the clarity and strong leadership offered by Brexit Party.
    Having not voted Conservative since John Major in the 90s I am perhaps a surprising advocate for Rory Stewart, but, as I see it, it is only he that can square the hellishly difficult dilemma of how to deliver Brexit without collapsing the UK economy, diminishing the country's international status, or dismantling the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland.

Rory Stewart is the only Conservative candidate with a chance of achieving a satisfactory Brexit outcome for the British people.  Quite apart from believing that this person actually cares about the big issues, climate change, fairness and wants to overhaul social care, his strategy on Brexit, in the particular parliamentary circumstances the country finds itself, is the only candidate that is able deliver a sensible Brexit.

    So how will Rory do it? Well first, as Prime Minister, Rory Stewart will immediately take No Deal off and Remain off the table. There will be those that will baulk at this idea, imagining that our P.M. should negotiate an International Treaty like a company Sales Director, however, as the last three years have established, trying to do deal with 27 other countries is not easy and to deny this practical reality is to accept further excruciating and damaging delay.   
    Because of the awful inflationary economic consequences of a No Deal Brexit the EU know, as do a majority of the UK's MPs, that a NO Deal is so remote a possibility that it ceases to be the bargaining chip, that all other the other conservative candidates say it is.  In my view, No Deal is not a credible threat and will not work within current international diplomatic circles.

Threatening Germany and France with No Deal may be an effective tactic for the US with its military and economic might, as it may have been for Britain in the 19^thcentury, but it is naïve  to imagine that the UK can negotiate so aggressively with 27 EU countries, with the level of power it is able to wield today. 

    For me personally, the Conservative leadership contest is a win-win situation. If Boris Johnson wins we’ll have a general election and Labour Government a few years sooner, but if Conservatives have the wisdom to vote for a candidate with the brains, negotiating skill and the humility to do a deal with the EU and without condemning millions of our poorest UK citizens to poverty by ushering in a No Deal Brexit, then in Rory Stewart Conservatives should be allowed one more chance to safely deliver a grown-up Brexit deal, and at the same time, do the right thing for Britain. 

Written June 24th 2016 | Brexit could take ten years and might bot happen at all

Will Britain genuinely EXIT the EU?

Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler says that voting for Brexit was more about how people feel than thinking hard and long about the economic consequences of leaving the European Union (EU).

“Most voters aren’t really thinking about it in a very analytical way… the people behind the leave campaign are voting with their guts. There’s no spreadsheet. This is much like a divorce without a pre-nup. You’re voting to leave, and we’ll take care of all the financial details later,” Richard Thaler: Read the full interview MarketWatch.com 

After fifteen months fruitlessly arguing about how much UK citizens will have to pay to leave the EU, the Government risks appearing indecisive and weak.  This itself makes it increasingly unlikely that Theresa May will be able to deliver the Single Market solution business leaders say they need. 

The problem Theresa May faces, day-in-day-out, is that remaining part of the Single Market is incompatible with the reasons why Brexiteers, both within and outside the Conservative Party, voted to leave the EU.  Bexiteers consistently argue, that to be an independent soveriegn nation, the UK must have control of its borders, with the laws that govern them made in Britain and not Brussels.  Alongside this, if the UK wants to remain part of the EU Single Market, there's the additional headache of which law applies to business activity: trade agreements, contract law, health and safety and so on.  Ultimately, if we agree to be part of the EU Single Market it's hard to imagine Brussels doing a deal with the UK Government without British business having to obey the European Court of Justice (EUJ). Add to that the embarrassing fact that no one yet seems to know how much the British people will have to pay to get out of the EU, and it's easy to sympathise with Theresa May's who's life must be unbearable.  

The reality the UK government faces is that being part of EU Single Market means (as near as makes no difference) remaining in the EU. 

 
Brexit is a living nightmare, it was always going to be and looking into the haggard faces of ministers commuting to-and-fro the EU, it looks as if they've had enough too. I just can't see the UK being able to agree to the EU Divorce Settlement as proposed (£60bn) and, even if that is ever agreed the Government will have to sit down with EU officials yet again to try and work out the size of fee the UK will have to pay (just as Norway had to) to retain access to tariff-free EU markets.

While politicians will keep talking behind the scenes, all this time-wasting is becoming all too much for the government who, I believe is planning for a full-blown EU exit.

Since the EU referendum in June 2016, the pound has fallen dramatically, public services are being squeezed and at the same time as the country's national debt is heading for the stratosphere. In normal circumstances interest rates would have the rise to control the supply of money, prop up the pound and help prevent import costs spiralling out of control.  So why is the Bank of England (BOE) ignoring the Government's inflation target of 2%?  

While the BOE has a responsibility to keep prices in check, it appears to be deliberately letting inflation rip.  It's this change of economic policy that I believe demonstrates that the Government's end game is for the UK to leave the EU lock stock and barrel. No Single Market, no European Court of Justice.   

 

It's certainly remains a possibity that if the EU apply enough pressure, Theresa May will renege on the referendum result and remain wedded to the EU via the Single Market.

Some will say this all-out strategy is just a clever negotiating position designed to regain leverage when attempting to do a deal with their fastidious European counterparts.  It's possible, but I doubt that the BOE would be rebalancing the UK economy in the dramatic way it is unless the Government had already decided to grasp the nettle, pull out and let the EU to get on with developing the European Superstate the UK has been resisting for fifty odd years.

So, if I'm right, that the Government is preparing the UK for a manufacturing revival and a much lower pound, it shouldn't be too long before a full Brexit is announced.  Whether that will work in our favour is another point and all that I'm saying is, at this rather pathetic stage in the Government's negotiations, it appears to me that the BOE are moving the UK towards the economic circumstances that Brexit could actually mean Brexit. 

So who are the winners and losers as the Goverment devalues the pound in readiness for life without the EU?  In the long run it will be those working for export businesses and their owners who will benefit most, as will citizens from other coutries who will take advantage of cheaper goods and services courtesy of a more favourable UK exchange rate.  But who will pay?  In the medium term, say in three to five years, it will be the general public that pays the price of Brexit in the form of higher prices in the shops and particularly those that spend  larger proportion of their income on essentials, such as food, oil and white goods imported mainly from Europe, China and the USA.  As ever, it's the working people that pays the biggest price of economic disruption and the in-the-know business folk, because they can move their money more easily than people can shift their labour, who win.

Can we dare be optimistic?  Well, maybe we can, but only in the very long run.  After twenty years of adjustment as the UK unravels fifty years of manufacturing malaise, the economy may re-emerge with a thriving export market. It's possible, therefore, that the next generation could do very well out of Brexit and who knows, the UK might even restore some national pride and export it's own motor cars again?  In the meantime, however, the average man and woman will have to endure rising prices in the shops, caused in part by increased import tarriffs and in part by rising labour costs after free movement of labour ends post Brexit.  

 

So, buckle up people, there's no magic money tree (unless your bankrupt bank) and as always, it's working people that take up the slack as our corporate saviours reorganise themselves to cope with lofe outside a tarrif free EU Single Market.

More on the EU: Brexit could take 10 years and might not happen at all

Is Labour's call for a full-blown Customs Union the UK's last chance to avoid a No Deal Brexit?

Business leaders must have been squirming on the golf course yesteday as the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn gave Theresa May's government a lesson in what's best for the UK economy.

So why isn't the Conservative Party trying harder to help business?  After all, it's they that claim to care about business and finance and by failing to embrace a nationwide Customs Union, rule out a No Deal Brexit, or at the very least, consider a second referendum on the final deal. The Conservatives are, as it were, biting the hand that feeds them.

The answer, however,  is not as simple as it might seem. The problem the government faces, is that, because it has no overall majority in Parliament, its ability to compromise on any EU deal is difficult, not only by the need to maintain the support of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), but also a much larger group of hard-line Conservative Brexiteers who favour a clean break from the EU, or No Deal.

The DUP's position is confusing, but, in a nutshell, the DUP is adamant that they will not accept a deal that treats Northern Ireland differently to other UK countries. It follows that, without a UK-wide Customs Union, or a No Deal Brexit, the DUP, along with 100s of others in Parliament, find it impossible to vote for May's deal, a deal which centres on the so called Irish Backstop.  For those who find the notion of a Backstop difficult, all it really is is a political mechanism designed to make special arrangements through a natonwide Customs Union that keep the EU border between Northern Ireland open to trade and people.  If the Backstop were permanant the DUP would, because it's nationwide, accept this, however, to Conservative Brexiteers, an Irish Backstop that leaves the EU in control of when the border between the EU and the UK can be lifted, is unacceptable and feels to them like being half-in Europe.  

 

Given the history of Northern Ireland and an appreciation of the DUP's stated position to preserve the Union and remain inextricably linked to the UK, the DUP's attitude to the Irish Backstop shouldn't have been a massive surprise to the May Government.  Preserving the integrity of the United Kingdom is a purpose the DUP share with the Conservative Party, which, alongside supporting the owners of property, wealth and the monarchy, have developed to protect the Union of countries which now make up the UK. This, of course, is why the DUP has the word Unionist in it's name, why the Tories have the official label of The Conservative and Unionist Party and why the DUP insists on being welded to the UK

So, despite the perception of the Conservative Party as the natural party of business, the Theresa May government appears to be marching the UK towards an economically suicidal No Deal Brexit and, in the process, risk damaging the business community they exist to protect.

It follows that remaining half-in the EU via a Customs Union, whether that be a Custom's Union negotiated separately with the EU, or one part of a permanent Irish Backstop, is, by far, the best comprise for UK business.  Some will say that, if we have access to the Single Market through a Custom's Union, then we may as well, in economic terms at least, have voted Remain? I understand that, and have written about it on this blog, but the point I'm trying to make here is that, if the Conservative Party remains the champion of business and truly believes in the integrity of the United Kingdom, then they must now work with Labour and the majority in Parliament, to jettison a No Deal and put in place Customs Union so that the UK can, at last, wriggle free of this appalling political impasse.

Brexit could take 10 years and might not happen at all. (Written the day after the 2016 IN-OUT EU referendum 

Brexit could take 10 years and might not happen at all?

I've been doing some background reading of Article 50, the legal framework contained in the Lisbon Treaty that controls the withdrawal process of European Union Member States. This research has helped me predict how long it may take for the Government to unravel over forty years of EU membership.

What I have found is that there are circumstances that suggest that those voting OUT may have to wait 10 years before Brexit is finalised.

Withdrawal could be delayed for a number of reasons:

The UK Government may have to delay the process to organise a second referendum to ask the British people whether they accept the withdrawal terms that they may not have realised they'd have to comply with when they voted in the first (yesterday's) referendum.

Parliament may also vote against the EU withdrawal agreement if they think it is unfair to the UK population and may insist on a further round of talks. Note that this scenario is more likely to happen in the event of a weak  UK Government and especialy if Scotland wants to join the EU following a further  independence refererendum. 

In the event of a collapse of UK Government, something I consider highly likely given Conservative Party's flimsy majority, that a new Government could seek to reverse the decision to leave, or fundamentally alter the withdrawal terms negotiated by the previous administration.

There could also be lengthy legal challenges to the withdrawal terms, not only from within the UK, but from any of the other 27 EU Member States. Further research surrounding the legality of such claims suggest to me that such challenges are likely to be derived from notions of European Integration which could have been considered in law, as irreversible. In other words, it may be argued by some legal scholars’ that Article 50, the legal device that controls the UK exit from the EU, is unconstitutional.

The UK should not expect a quick clean exit from the European Union, or that trading within the Single Market post Brexit will  come cheap and if the government's exit plan fails to recognise workers rights, and the free movement of labour (after all, there is free movement of capital) then the opposition parties could drag Brexit on until  2025 and beyond.

More on the UK's In-Out EU Referendum

Brexit: What are we going to do now?

New Yorker agrees 270616

The forgotten arguments since Boris's hollow Brexit bus.

To make a decision on Brexit MPs have the unenviable task of weighing two incompatible realities:

• Leaving the EU gives back to the UK electorate the right to hire and fire those that govern them.

• Leaving the EU will cause years and years of economic disruption on a scale that we have not seen since the 1920s.

Below: Tony Benn puts the democratic case for leaving the EU

More on the EU:

• Brexit could take 10 years and might not happen at all
• Will the UK ever leave the EU? 
• The European Union IN or OUT

UK MPs don't want a "Half-in Half-out" Brexit

Too many MPs won't accept a half-in/half-out EU deal, so logically it's a General Election or honour the referendum and come out http://https://t.co/vHcgFu83U4 #brexit #NoConfidence @bbclaurak #BrunoBrussels @jeremycorbyn

— Anthony Bounds (@AnthonyBounds) 14 December 2018

More on the European Union

How to avoid a second EU referendum

1. Take Remain off the table

2. Take No Deal off the table

3. Lock MPs in Parliament for 7 days with packed lunches until they do their job and decide what to do

4. If they can't agree then replace MPs with a general election

5. In the event of another Hung Parliament, Repeat stages 1 - 4 until a deal is agreed

6. Put the deal to EU

7. If the EU agree to the deal

BREXIT DONE

8. If EU are unable to agree - walk away without a deal and do deals after Brexit

Brexit: What are we going to do now?

Not sure the Brexiteers have the foggiest what to do now they've won? 

More on Article 50 and Brexit

Intereview with Spike Miligan

Is Theresa May on borrowed time?

Socialists, Lib-Dems, Greens and other progressive thinkers, take heart, a minority Conservative Government is NOT sustainable.

Theresa May is in a real jam. She has failed to deliver the thumping majority she promised and has been forced, like David Cameron before her, to ask another political party to prop her up.

So what now? It's natural for a pragmatic party like the Conservatives, faced with these unstable circumstances, to shift policy to the left. There's signs of a shift to the left being planned already with Theresa May stating shortly after the election results that she wants to govern for "all the people", but there's a problem - a colossal problem. At the same time as needing to shift to the left to head-off the increasingly popular Jeremy Corbyn, Theresa May, to get the Remain orientated Soft Brexit she believes in, has got to placate the influential right-wing hard Brexiteers embedded within her own party. This reality is incompatible with need to move left and it is this that will haunt Theresa May until she resigns.

It's an unenviable position the Prime Minister finds herself which is why the Conservative Party has allowed Theresa May to stay on as leader - for now anyway. This flimsy state of affairs is not possible to sustain for long and another election (before too long) is inevitable.

More on Politics 

Collective Hysteria - Facebook Petitions and Donald Trump

MOBILE VERSION

Can Facebook polls stop Trump's visit?

There are people across Britain that are frightened about what Donald Trump is doing and fretting about whether he'll do all the things he's been promising to do for years. Demonstrators are taking to the streets and petitions delivered to No. 10 hoping that Facebook can reverse the American election result and prevent the President visiting Britain and meeting the Queen. 

As if the Queen of needs our permission to snub Trump? She could tell him to "Fuck Off" if she wanted. I mean, what's the point of being Queen, if she can't pick her own friends? Just for fun, because the Queen's considerably richer than Donald Trump, on Trump's terms at least, her majesty would be perfectly within her rights to grab Donald's balls... Anyway, enough of silly "locker-room talk" and back to the point.

So what's going on, and more to the point, why are the British political class whining incessantly about Donald Trump. Well, it seems to me that people are suffering a kind of collective hysteria, triggered by feelings of powerlessness exacerbated by the UK willingly burning it's bridges with the European Union. Only the Greens, the SNP and Lib-Dems want to reverse Brexit and get back in bed with the EU and, as a consequence, we're over a barrel, with nowhere to go but into Trumps arms.

Unfortunately for the UK, globalism has failed too many people in America, and so Trump, appears to have chosen a different approach. As a result of America's new vision the UK too is in danger of being dragged into a lengthy period of nationalism and protectionist that will widen the political divide with the EU and snuggle Britain up with Trump still further.

Rather than trying to cooperate fully in a global world America has decided, through President Trump, to draw in it's horns and hope that it can compete favourably with Communist China a little longer.

If people protest enough and sufficient Facebook petitions, will Donald Trump have second thoughts about the Mexican Wall, renege on his promise of  a strict immigration and stop putting America first?  

What Pope Francis said about Trump

More Politics

Read the published article

Was David Cameron a successful Prime Minister?

It's tempting to say, because of losing the referendum and with it the UK's influence in Europe, that David Cameron's premiership has been a dismal failure? I disagree.


Not withstanding the unstoppable national debt (now over 1.6 Trillion [up from 900bn under Labour]) and the impending break-up of the United Kingdom, David Cameron has done what any good Conservative worth his salt is elected to do, which is to protect the interests of the owners of capital and ensure that the country's wealth remains in the hands of a very select few. Well done Dave, by Tory standards, your a massive success...


More politics

Will Brexit ever happen?

OUT means OUT

I argued to stay in the EU because I thought that leaving would damage workers rights and reasoned that trying to wriggle free of over 40 years enmeshed in European Union law would be a fiasco. 

The UK people have decided, albeit by a slender margin, that they want their Parliament and the British Courts to make the laws that govern them and a popular majority now expect the Government to face up to the fact that those who voted to leave the European Union didn't do so expecting the Conservative Party to contrive to remain part of the E.U. through membership of the Single Market. OUT, I think, should mean OUT.

The reality the country now faces is that being part of an Economic Customs Union, or Single Market effectively means (as near as makes no difference) the UK remaining within the E.U. This is incompatible with the wishes of those who wanted the UK to leave the E.U and believe that it is the British Parliament and not unelected EU bureaucrats that should EU making the laws that governs them.

Written the day after the Referendum: Brexit could take 10 years and might not happen at all